A Black Swan event is a metaphor for an event that is a surprise and has a major impact. The term was coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”. He used the term describe events that were previously considered impossible but have since happened.
A Black Swan event is often hard to predict and can be catastrophic, yet it may still be rational to act as though it will happen, because if it does happen, its effects will be extreme.
The term comes from the ancient expression “All swans are white” – which was ‘true’ until Dutch explorers cam across black swans in Western Australia in 1697.
I wonder if the first nations people of Western Australia had an expression ‘All swans are black”